Skip to main content

Gap to Target

Definition

Gap to Target is the difference between your target capacity (what you need) and your current capacity (what you have). It quantifies whether you're overstaffed, understaffed, or right-sized.

Formula

Gap to Target = Target Capacity - Current Capacity

Interpretation:

  • Positive gap: You're SHORT on capacity (need to hire)
  • Zero gap: You're AT target (perfect world)
  • Negative gap: You're OVER capacity (surplus)

Worked Example 1: Capacity Shortfall

Scenario:

  • Target Capacity: $10.0M
  • Current Capacity: $7.0M
Gap to Target = $10.0M - $7.0M = +$3.0M

Status: 🔴 30% below target (shortfall)

Interpretation:

  • You need $3.0M more selling capacity
  • At $1.2M per fully ramped AE → Need ~2.5 more RRE
  • Accounting for ramp → Need to hire 3-4 people

Worked Example 2: At Target

Scenario:

  • Target Capacity: $10.0M
  • Current Capacity: $10.1M
Gap to Target = $10.0M - $10.1M = -$0.1M

Status: 🟢 At target (within 1%)

Interpretation:

  • Team is properly sized
  • Maintain current hiring pace to offset attrition
  • Focus on retention and productivity

Worked Example 3: Over-Capacity

Scenario:

  • Target Capacity: $10.0M
  • Current Capacity: $12.5M
Gap to Target = $10.0M - $12.5M = -$2.5M

Status: 🟡 25% over target (surplus)

Interpretation:

  • You have more capacity than needed
  • Might be intentional (buffer for attrition)
  • Or accidental (over-hired, target changed)
  • Consider: Slow hiring, increase quotas, expand TAM

Gap in Headcount Terms

Convert dollar gap to people equivalent:

Headcount Gap = Gap to Target / Standard Quota

Example:

Gap: $3.0M
Standard Quota: $1.2M annual
Headcount Gap: $3.0M / $1.2M = 2.5 people

→ Need to hire 3 people to close gap (rounding up)

⚠️ Important: This assumes fully ramped reps. If hiring now:

  • 3 hires today → Only ~0.75 RRE capacity this quarter (due to ramp)
  • Need MORE hires if trying to close gap quickly

Quarterly Gap Progression

Track how gap changes over time:

QuarterTargetCurrentGapStatus
Q1 2025$10M$15.3M-$5.3M🟢 Over (buffer)
Q2 2025$10M$13.3M-$3.3M🟢 Over (buffer)
Q3 2025$10M$11.1M-$1.1M🟢 Slightly over
Q4 2025$10M$7.0M+$3.0M🔴 Short (crisis)

Trend Analysis:

  • Started year with 53% surplus
  • Each quarter, attrition eroded capacity faster than backfills could restore
  • By Q4, flipped to 30% shortfall
  • Action needed: Accelerate hiring in Q1

Root Causes of Gap

Positive Gap (Shortfall)

Why you're short on capacity:

  1. High Attrition

    • Lost more people than expected
    • Didn't backfill fast enough
    • Example: 45% quarterly attrition vs 13% expected
  2. Slow Hiring

    • Positions left open too long
    • Time-to-hire exceeded plan
    • Offers declined
  3. Ramp Drag

    • New hires ramping slower than expected
    • Poor onboarding
    • Too many junior hires
  4. Leaves of Absence

    • Temporary capacity loss
    • Medical, parental, sabbatical
  5. Quota Increases

    • Target capacity raised mid-year
    • Market expansion
    • New product lines

Negative Gap (Surplus)

Why you're over-capacity:

  1. Over-Hiring

    • Hired ahead of target
    • Buffer for attrition
    • Aggressive growth plan
  2. Lower Attrition

    • Retention improved unexpectedly
    • Market cooled down
  3. Faster Ramp

    • Better onboarding than planned
    • Experienced hires ramped quickly
  4. Target Reduction

    • Revenue target lowered
    • Market contraction
    • Product sunset

Setting Target Capacity

Top-Down Approach (Revenue-Driven)

Step 1: Set Revenue Target
Annual Revenue Goal: $50M

Step 2: Define Standard Quota
Average Quota per Rep: $1M

Step 3: Account for Attainment
Expected Team Attainment: 85%

Step 4: Calculate Capacity Needed
Target Capacity = $50M / 85% = $58.8M

Step 5: Convert to RRE
Target RRE = $58.8M / $1M = 58.8 RRE

Bottom-Up Approach (Coverage-Driven)

Step 1: Define Coverage Need
Total Addressable Accounts: 5,000
Accounts per Rep: 100

Step 2: Calculate Reps Needed
Required Reps = 5,000 / 100 = 50 reps

Step 3: Account for Ramp
If 20% of team is ramping at 60% avg:
40 fully ramped = 40 RRE
10 ramping at 60% = 6 RRE
Target: 46 RRE effective

Step 4: Convert to Dollars
At $1M per RRE:
Target Capacity = 46 RRE × $1M = $46M

Managing the Gap

Closing a Positive Gap (Shortfall)

3 strategies:

1. Hire More

Current Capacity: $7.0M
Gap: +$3.0M
→ Hire 3-4 reps
→ Timeline: 6 months to full productivity

Pros: Permanent solution Cons: Expensive, slow to ramp

2. Accelerate Ramp

Current ramp: 5 months to 100%
Improved ramp: 4 months to 100%
→ Existing 3 ramping reps gain +$0.9M capacity one month earlier

Pros: Faster impact Cons: Requires onboarding investment

3. Reduce Attrition

Current attrition: 15% quarterly
Improved attrition: 10% quarterly
→ Save 5% × $7.0M = $350K per quarter

Pros: Protects existing capacity Cons: Long-term cultural fixes


Managing a Negative Gap (Surplus)

3 strategies:

1. Slow Hiring

Current plan: Hire 4 reps per quarter
Adjusted plan: Hire 2 reps per quarter
→ Let natural attrition reduce surplus

Pros: No layoffs, cost-efficient Cons: Takes time

2. Increase Quotas

Current quota: $1M per rep
New quota: $1.2M per rep
→ Same headcount, higher target capacity

Pros: Leverages existing team Cons: Risk of demotivation if too aggressive

3. Expand TAM

Surplus capacity: $2.5M
→ Enter new market segment
→ Launch new product
→ Geographic expansion

Pros: Growth opportunity Cons: Requires market validation


Acceptable Gap Thresholds

Gap RangeStatusAction
-10% to +10%🟢 GreenNo action, maintain course
+10% to +20%🟡 YellowAccelerate hiring, monitor closely
+20% to +30%🟠 OrangeUrgent hiring needed
> +30%🔴 RedCrisis mode, re-evaluate targets
< -10%🟡 YellowSlow hiring, consider reallocation

Example Status Report

Current Quarter:

Target: $10.0M
Current: $7.0M
Gap: +$3.0M (30%)
Status: 🔴 Red (Crisis)
Action: Hire 4 AEs immediately, expected recovery by Q3

Forecasting Future Gap

Project gap trajectory based on hiring plan:

Example:

QuarterTargetCurrentGapAction Plan
Q4 2025$10M$7.0M+$3.0M🔴 Crisis
Q1 2026$10M$7.3M+$2.7M🟠 Hire 4 AEs
Q2 2026$10M$8.5M+$1.5M🟡 Ramp continuing
Q3 2026$10M$9.8M+$0.2M🟢 Nearly closed
Q4 2026$10M$10.5M-$0.5M🟢 At target

Recovery timeline: 4 quarters from crisis to target


Best Practices

1. Report Gap as %

❌ Gap: $3.0M (What does this mean?)
✅ Gap: $3.0M (30% below target)

2. Show Trend

Q3 Gap: -$1.1M (11% over)
Q4 Gap: +$3.0M (30% under)
→ Swing of $4.1M in one quarter (attrition spike)

3. Break Down by Team

TeamTargetCurrentGapStatus
Northeast$4M$2.8M+$1.2M🔴 Short
Southeast$3M$2.9M+$0.1M🟢 Good
West$3M$3.5M-$0.5M🟢 Over

Insight: Northeast has critical gap, West has surplus → Transfer resources?

4. Communicate Action Plan

Gap: $3.0M (30% below target)

Recovery Plan:
• Hire 4 AEs in Q1 (approved)
• Expected start dates: 2 in Month 1, 2 in Month 3
• Full recovery: Q4 2026 (assuming 13% attrition)
• Risk: If attrition exceeds 15%, need 1-2 additional hires

Common Pitfalls

1. Comparing to Wrong Target

Mistake: Using annual target for quarterly gap

Example:

Annual Target: $40M
Current Capacity (Q1): $8M
Gap: +$32M ← WRONG!

Correct:

Quarterly Target: $10M
Current Capacity: $8M
Gap: +$2M

2. Not Accounting for Ramp in Solutions

Mistake: "Gap is $3M, hire 3 people, gap closed."

Reality: Those 3 people contribute ~$0.75M in first quarter. Gap won't close for 4-5 quarters.

3. Treating All Gaps Equally

Mistake: +10% gap treated same as +30% gap

Reality: +10% is normal fluctuation, +30% is crisis requiring immediate action.


References

  • Standard metric in sales capacity planning
  • Gap analysis is fundamental to workforce planning
  • Also called: Capacity shortfall, capacity deficit, headcount gap (when measured in people)